Analysis of Dry-Spells in the Western Maize-Growing Areas of South Africa

Crop yield in rainfed agriculture is directly influenced by rainfall patterns, which vary from one growing season to another. The failure or success of such crops can depend on the amount and distribution and, particularly, occurrence dry- wet-spells during season. aim this study was investigate initial conditional probabilities dry-spell pentads using Markov chain model western maize-growing region South Africa, as well determine direction magnitude trends Mann–Kendal monotonic trend test Sen’s slope estimator. results revealed that all districts are affected dry-spells mid-January-to-end-of-February period. This finding significant because maize usually planted late November December region, may coincide with flowering stage crop. When occur maize, they significantly affect yield. analysis most (7 out 11 districts) have a decreasing occurrences except for 86, 87, 91 93. However, statistically insignificant districts, thus, reveals there no change minor across districts. Furthermore, estimator signalled decrease over Information will inform farmers various regarding changes their particular risk profile dry-spells.